Rising daily coronavirus totals in many U.S. states show a legitimate increase in the virus's transmission and cannot be explained by more readily-available testing, according to a new Time report.
With reliable testing scarce in the early days of the pandemic's grip on the U.S. — and given the virus's ability to transmit from asymptomatic carriers — many experts speculated that the actual number of cases was much higher than what the data reflected.
During the initial rollout of coronavirus testing, officials in nearly every state chalked up day-over-day leaps in confirmed cases to expanded testing. Those assertions have been mostly confirmed, but they aren't true for the recent spate of increases.
Now, three months after the crisis prompted lockdowns across the country, researchers say that there are several indications that spikes in coronavirus cases in states like Florida, Texas, Arizona and several others indicate a true increase in the virus's prevalence.
While more testing indeed reveals more cases, if more testing was the sole reason for a rise in coronavirus cases, the share of positive tests should have either decreased or remained steady.
But the share of positive coronavirus tests is rising. So too is the share of COVID-19-related hospital admissions.
"It think it's a true increase in the number of cases. It's not just attributable to testing," Murray Côté, professor of health policy and management at Texas A&M, told Time. "If it was due to the testing, we wouldn't see the rates that we see. And the rates are indicative of the relaxation [in preventative measures]."
Dr. Joe Gerald, of the University of Arizona, adds that the uptick in COVID cases in his state started 10 to 14 days after its stay-at-home order expired.
In Florida, as the volume of testing increases, the population of infected people is also increasing. Data suggests Florida may be the U.S.'s new epicenter for the virus.
Dr. Aileen M. Marty, of Florida International University, says increased testing has revealed that the virus is spreading more rapidly in her state. She says Floridians are routinely flouting calls for face coverings and social distancing. She adds that there is a "false sense that the pandemic is over, when in truth the numbers are only going up."
There have been numerous indications that COVID-19 risk has been rising in most of the country for over a month.
Northeastern states were the sites of the nation's earliest and most severe outbreaks so far. Extreme measures to promote social distancing led to a steady decline in coronavirus cases and in COVID-19 hospitalization.
But the number of cases in densely-packed states like New York and New Jersey made up such a large portion of the U.S.'s total coronavirus data that their success in driving down the virus's impact made it appear as if the entire nation was beating back the virus.
An Associated Press report in early-May that sorted NY and NJ data out of the national numbers and revealed that the infection rate was in fact rising nationwide, particularly in rural areas with more vulnerable medical infrastructures.
New York and New Jersey began reopening in June, weeks after other states began rolling back their restrictions.
Florida reported 966 new coronavirus cases on June 8. Twelve days later on June 20, the state reported 4,049 new cases.
Officials warn that this week will be a pivotal one for states experiencing COVID spikes when they will learn if their medical infrastructures will be able to manage a potential onslaught of sick patients.
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